Full article: Factors affecting market outlet choice of agroforestry based mango producers in Kwale and Kilifi counties, Kenya: The application of the Multivariate Probit model

The multivariate probit model was employed in determining the factors that affected the choice of market outlets among mango producers. The MVP is an extension of the probit model as it is used to simultaneously estimate several correlated binary outcomes (Belderbos et al., Citation2004). The model takes into account the correlation in the error terms by jointly modelling the effect of the independent variables on each of the market outlets. The study found four outlets for the mango produce, which are farm gate customers, middlemen, local retail and town markets. The producers thus sold their fruits among these outlets in various proportions. If the inter-relationships involved in selling among the various outlets are not taken into consideration, it may result in biased estimates of the factors that influence the choice of the produce market outlets (Amos et al., Citation2017). The multivariate probit model was thus used to account for the interdependent relationships of the market outlets.

The results of the MVP model are presented in , showing the likelihood test ratio (Rho-values), of rho21=rho31=rho41=rho32=rho42=rho43=0 are statistically significant at 1%. The error terms of the multivariate probit model thus jointly follow a normal distribution with a zero conditional mean. The model is thus fit for use as it shows that the producer’s decision to sell to various market outlets is interdependent.

Table 4. The determinants of mango market outlets chosen by producers from the multivariate probit model

Increase in distance to the market is hypothesized to reduce product commercialization. However, increase in distance to the market outlet had a significant (p